Diffusion Confusion: Why Great Tech Still Fails

Posted at: 04.08.2025in category:Top Stories
Let's discuss the science behind innovation diffusion and the factors that drive product success.

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Innovation doesn't guarantee adoption. From cutting edge gadgets to revolutionary software, even the most promising tech can flop. Success hinges not just on what a product can do, but how well it fits into people's lives – practically, emotionally, and socially.

The Five Factors

Everett Rogers’ theory breaks down how and why new ideas, products, or technologies catch on – or don't – by looking at what makes people more likely to adopt something new in the first place.

  1. Relative Advantage – To what extent is the new product superior to existing products? This value could be in the form of a better, higher quality product, a lower price, better accessibility or availability, or better communication. Although a better product is most common, all aspects of the marketing mix apply.

  2. Compatibility – How well does it fit into the lifestyles, needs, values, norms, and patterns of consumers? In order for a product to diffuse quicker, it should require minimal changes for people in their day-to-day lives and it should be compatible with their existing behavior and culture.

  3. Complexity – Is the product easy to understand, purchase, and use? Products are more easily diffused when there is minimal complexity, technologically or otherwise. Even if a product is complicated to use, companies can remedy this by providing clear communication and instructions, as well as trials or demos.

  4. Trialability – Is it easy for users to try or test out the product? This includes samples, demos, test runs, and warranties.

  5. Observability – Does the product have tangible, socially visible, and immediate benefits? The more these benefits can be observed and perceived, the faster the product will diffuse.

Why We Buy

Product adoption goes beyond the factors defined in the Everett Rogers theory. Another article argues that emotion-driven design is a factor that can influence product adoption. Functionality is a basic requirement, but companies that really want to get ahead need to create emotional resonance and make users feel understood, empowered, or other positive emotions. This not only builds a sense of loyalty, but it also encourages organic growth through word of mouth.

Other professionals cite social perception and fear-of-missing-out as other social drivers of product adoption. For example, some people purchase products to signal status or because they see a lot of people using it online and they don't want to feel left out.

Achieving product-market fit is another crucial step for success. This concept refers to a product fulfilling a strong market demand, ensuring that customers are not only interested but also willing to pay for it. Without this alignment, even the most innovative products may struggle to gain traction.

What Went Wrong with Google Glass

The failure of Google Glass is an interesting case study of innovation and product adoption. In 2014, Google launched a pair of glasses that integrated a computer and camera, essentially mimicking all the functions of a smartphone in a more seamless way. Users could send messages and take photos using voice commands or even a swipe of their hand. However, despite ample resources and support, the product failed miserably.

First, in terms of the Everett Rogers' Theory:

  1. Relative Advantage: Glass offered almost the same solutions as what smartphones were already providing. It attempted to solve a problem that didn't really exist and left most people feeling that it was not worth the 500 price tag.

  2. Compatibility: The product didn't fit in with behavioral norms. The camera gave Glass a sense of invasiveness and awkwardness, which clashed with privacy rules and social etiquette.

  3. Complexity: Although designed to be intuitive, Glass felt unnatural and confusing to use. It also didn't have a lot of practical use cases.

  4. Trialability: The trial or public testing phase was only available for "tech elites." It was expensive and exclusive, making it inaccessible for users to try.

  5. Observability: Although Glass was very easily noticeable when someone was wearing it, the benefits themselves weren't so visible.

As for psychological drivers, Glass fell short as well. Instead of resonating with people emotionally, it made people uncomfortable and evoked unease and some paranoia about privacy. The glasses also made users look out of touch and lacked the desirable social image that products like iPhones and AirPods use to gain social-driven adoption.

The Big Picture

Product success depends on more than just innovation. In order to achieve widespread adoption, companies need to focus on fitting in with infrastructure, culture, and incentives.

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